NFL Mock Draft 5.0: Scenario Mock

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With the number one pick the Houston Texans select…Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Jadeveon Clowney?

For the first time in a while there is no consensus number one pick. While the Houston Texans are in need of a quarterback, Clowney and Khalil Mack are two incredible defensive prospects who would be hard to pass up.

And even if the Texans decide to take a quarterback? Which one will it be? Although there is no franchise-changing quarterback in this years’ draft (Think: Andrew Luck), there are three great quarterbacks at the top of the class. If the Texans decide to take a QB, will it, or should it, be Bortles, Bridgewater or Manziel?

With so many different options at the No. 1 overall pick, the Texas pick will dictate much of the rest of the Top 10 picks. If they take a QB, there will only be two quarterbacks left, and four teams that could use a quarterback. If they take Clowney or Mack, a team that needed a defensive player, the Atlanta Falcons or Tampa Bay Buccaneers, will have to fill a need at another position, or make a reach for another defensive end.

There are five to six different scenarios that I think the first ten picks of the draft could shake out based on Houston’s selection, and factoring in a possible trade down by the St. Louis Rams.

And that’s just factoring in the first two picks, the Jaguars and Browns could also shake up the draft depending on their selection. The Browns could opt not to select a quarterback and take Sammy Watkins, Greg Robinson or Khalil Mack, and the Jaguars could not select Clowney and take a quarterback or Khalil Mack. In addition, Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr, viewed by many, including me, as a late first, early second round pick, has been climbing draft boards and could be a top 10 selection on draft day. But for the sake of clarity and length, we’ll stick to scenarios based on only the first two picks.

To start, I’ll base my scenarios off a base scenario, how I currently think the Top 10 picks will shake up, and then go from there.

Base Scenario: In the base scenario, Houston elects to take a quarterback and selects Blake Bortles. The Rams select an offensive tackle to solidify their offensive line and fill their biggest need. Jacksonville then selects the best prospect in the draft in Clowney, who the Jaguars front office really likes. The Browns select their future quarterback in Johnny Manziel at No. 4 overall and then the rest of the draft shakes out pretty similar to my Mock Draft 4.0. Oakland takes their speedy guy in Watkins, Atlanta fills their need at offensive line, Tampa selects a pass rusher, Minnesota selects their future QB in Bridgewater, who falls due to his lackluster pro day, the Bills give E.J Manuel a No. 1 target and the Lions fill a need in their secondary.

  1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  2. St. Louis RamsGreg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  8. Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville.
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.

Scenario #1: The Houston Texans select Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel No. 1 overall. Arguably the quarterback prospect with the most risk but also the highest reward, the Texans keep Manziel in Texas in this scenario. The rest of the selections stay about the same, except Cleveland selects Bortles, rather than Manziel, as Johnny Football is no longer available.

  1. Houston Texans: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  2. St. Louis RamsGreg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M.
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  8. Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville.
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.

Scenario #2: The Houston Texans select South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney with the first pick. The Texans decide to pass on a quarterback and select the best prospect in the draft in Clowney. With Clowney off the board at No. 3, the Jaguars select Manziel to be their quarterback of the future, and Cleveland then selects Bortles. The rest of the draft shakes out the same as previous scenarios.

  1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  2. St. Louis RamsGreg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M.
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  8. Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville.
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.

Scenario #3: The Houston Texans select Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack with the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. While this selection would come as a surprise, it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities given Mack’s continued rise. With the selection of Mack, Clowney is available at No. 3 for the Jaguars and the draft pretty much goes as before until Tampa Bay. With Mack off the board, the Buccaneers, still in need of a pass rusher, select Anthony Barr. They could also take a wide receiver to add to Mike Glennon’s available weapons, forcing the Bills to then change their pick. With Bortles still available at No. 8 the Vikings select him over Bridgewater, commencing the Louisville product’s first round fall, most likely to the Arizona Cardinals.

  1. Houston Texans: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  2. St. Louis RamsGreg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA.
  8. Minnesota Vikings: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.

Scenario #4: The Houston Texans select Bortles, similar to the base scenario, but the Atlanta Falcons trade up with the Rams in order to take Clowney and bolster their pass rush. The Jaguars then select their quarterback of the future in Manziel, and with two quarterbacks off the board, the Browns take Bridgewater. At No. 6 the Rams take Greg Robinson, still available, to bolster their offensive line and without any of the top 3 quarterbacks still on the board, the Vikings select the new captain of their defense in Alabama linebacker C.J. Mosley.

  1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  2. Atlanta Falcons (via St. Louis)Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville.
  5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  6. St. Louis Rams (via Atlanta): Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  8. Minnesota Vikings: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.

Scenario #5: The Houston Texans select Bortles, like in the base scenario, and similar to scenario #4, the Rams find a partner to trade down, but this time it’s the Minnesota Vikings, who trade up to select a quarterback, knowing none of the top 3 will drop to them at No. 8. The Jaguars then select Clowney, followed by a very similar draft to previous scenarios, expect the Falcons and Rams switch offensive linemen, due to the Rams trading down.

  1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  2. Minnesota Vikings (via St. Louis)Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
  5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  6. Atlanta Falcons: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  8. St. Louis Rams (via Minnesota): Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M.
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.

Scenario #6: The Texans select Bortles, but the Rams then select Sammy Watkins to fill their hole at wide receiver. Everything stays the same as the base scenario till the Raiders selection, where without Watkins on the board, they select their quarterback of the future in Teddy Bridgewater. The Falcons then select Greg Robinson as he is still on the board, and then with the No. 8 selection, the Vikings select C.J. Mosley, or could possibly reach for Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr, who’s been moving up draft boards as of late.

  1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida.
  2. St. Louis Rams: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
  4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M.
  5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
  6. Atlanta Falcons: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn.
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo.
  8. Minnesota Vikings: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama.
  9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M.
  10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State.
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